Geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, severely disrupting Middle East crude oil and naphtha transportation and already causing a substantive shock to the chemical supply chain in the Asia-Pacific region. Goldman Sachs issued a warning on May 2, 2026, noting that about 20% of global chemical supply has been interrupted, and Chinese chemical export enterprises are facing real pressures such as tightening raw material security, production scheduling disruptions, and extended delivery cycles.

Event Overview

An analysis report released by Goldman Sachs on May 2, 2026 pointed out that, affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East crude oil and naphtha shipping routes are severely restricted; about 20% of global chemical supply has been interrupted; 70% of chemical raw materials in the Asia-Pacific region depend on imports from the Middle East; current petrochemical plant operating rates across the region have generally fallen to 50–60%; raw material inventories have bottomed out; physical-level easing is not expected until mid-to-late May 2026 at the earliest; and full recovery is projected to be delayed until the third quarter of 2026. This information is an institutional warning publicly released by Goldman Sachs and does not include independently verified third-party data or official government notices.

Which Market Segments Will Be Affected

Direct Trading Enterprises

Chemical import and export traders that rely mainly on the Middle East–Asia-Pacific route as their primary logistics pathway are already facing vessel schedule delays, increased document compliance risks, and higher insurance costs. The impact is mainly reflected in greater uncertainty in contract performance, higher risks of letter-of-credit refusal, and a narrowing transshipment trade window.

Raw Material Procurement Enterprises

Buyers dependent on basic feedstocks such as Middle East naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) are facing pressures including sharp jumps in spot quotations, higher minimum order quantities, and shortened payment terms. Some small and medium-sized procurement entities have already seen a surge in inquiries for substitute raw materials, but their technical compatibility has not yet been verified.

Processing and Manufacturing Enterprises

Midstream manufacturers using ethylene, propylene, and PX as starting feedstocks for products such as polyolefins, polyesters, ABS, and epoxy resins are experiencing unstable intermediate supply due to reduced operating rates at upstream cracking units. The impact is mainly reflected in passively extended production scheduling cycles, greater difficulty in controlling batch consistency, and a reduced willingness to take on small-batch customized orders.

Channel Distribution Enterprises

Chemical distributors and warehousing service providers report that inventory turnover days for naphtha and light hydrocarbons in major bonded warehouse areas in East China and South China have already been compressed from the normal 12–15 days to less than 5 days; the response efficiency of spot cargo allocation has dropped significantly; and the frequency of urgent customer replenishment demand has risen, while executability has declined in parallel.

What Relevant Enterprises or Practitioners Should Focus On and How They Should Respond at Present

Focus on Changes in Key Product Categories and Critical Nodes

What currently deserves closer attention is the vessel arrival schedule dynamics of feedstocks such as naphtha, LPG, mixed C4, and the BTX series, port discharge permit status, and changes in customs clearance efficiency at the three major ports of Shanghai, Ningbo, and Guangzhou, rather than broadly tracking the overall geopolitical trend.

Differentiate Between Policy Signals and the Actual Pace of Business Implementation

Although market rumors mention alternative transportation solutions (such as China-Europe freight trains carrying light oil products), from an industry perspective such solutions still lack support from mature commercial cases; enterprises should not incorporate unverified alternative logistics routes into the basis of current production planning.

Launch Secondary Supplier Coordination and Tiered Inventory Management in Advance

For imported raw materials that are non-core yet irreplaceable, it is recommended to reassess them according to a three-tier structure of “safety stock + in-transit inventory + emergency agreement inventory”; at the same time, conduct small-batch trial validation with domestic suppliers that have technical substitution capabilities, but do not rush to switch the main supplier system.

Strengthen Customer Communication Contingency Plans and Prepare for Renegotiation of Delivery Terms

For export orders that have been signed but not yet scheduled for production, delivery cycle reconfirmation should preferably be completed before mid-May; for orders concentrated for delivery from late Q2 to early Q3, it is recommended to explain objective constraints to customers in advance and conduct a legal review of the applicability of force majeure clauses.

Editorial Viewpoint / Industry Observation

Observably, this warning is not an isolated review of a single event, but a structural exposure of the existing fragility in the global chemical supply chain. From an industry perspective, it is more like an operational shock that has already produced phased results, rather than a mere risk signal——factory operating rates, inventory levels, and vessel schedule data have all shown measurable downward trends. What is currently worth continued observation is whether the first batch of rerouted vessels in mid-to-late May can berth as scheduled; the actual release progress of purification capacity for domestic alternative feedstocks (such as condensate oil and refinery dry gas); and whether signs of temporary capacity transfer emerge in Southeast Asia. These variables will determine whether the Q3 recovery pace is a linear repair or subject to repeated setbacks.

Conclusion: The fluctuation in chemical feedstock supply triggered by the transportation disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is essentially a transmission test of the failure of a regional logistics hub on the long-chain chemical industry. Its industry significance lies not in the geopolitical conflict itself, but in revealing the current high degree of route dependence of Asia-Pacific chemical manufacturing on a single maritime corridor. It is currently more appropriate to understand this as a real supply chain stress test rather than a short-term disturbance; enterprise decision-making should be based on verifiable logistics and inventory data rather than macro sentiment forecasts.

Source note: The main source of information is the public market warning report released by Goldman Sachs on May 2, 2026. Statements in the text such as “20% of global chemical supply interrupted,” “70% of Asia-Pacific raw materials depend on the Middle East,” “factory operating rates at 50–60%,” and “full recovery delayed until Q3 2026” are all cited from the original report. Items for continued observation include: the actual port arrival status of the first batch of alternative vessel schedules in mid-to-late May, progress in the scaled application of domestic alternative raw materials, and subsequent announcements from relevant national maritime authorities.