Goldman Sachs issued an emergency report on 2026年5月2日, pointing out that the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz situation has caused an interruption in the supply of approximately 20% of global chemical products, with petrochemical plants in the Asia-Pacific region generally seeing operating rates fall to 50%-60%, and inventories approaching the warning line. Delivery schedules and the FOB pricing basis for China’s key export chemical products such as polyolefins, styrene, and PTA are under pressure, directly affecting foreign trade fulfillment capability and supply chain resilience, requiring close attention from raw material procurement companies, export manufacturers, and international circulation service providers.

Event Overview

Goldman Sachs issued an emergency report on 2026年5月2日, confirming that the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz situation in the Middle East has led to an interruption in the supply of approximately 20% of global chemical products; 70% of basic chemical raw materials in the Asia-Pacific region depend on imports from the Middle East, and the average operating rate of petrochemical plants in the region has currently dropped to 50%-60%, with inventory levels nearing the warning line; the supply disruption is rapidly transmitting to China’s major export chemical categories such as polyolefins, styrene, and PTA, affecting delivery stability, the FOB pricing basis, and compliant stocking cycles; overseas importers need to immediately assess delivery risks for Q2 2026 orders and activate alternative procurement contingency plans.

Which Sub-sectors Are Affected

Direct Trading Enterprises

As supply volatility intensifies for major export categories such as PTA and styrene, the FOB pricing basis is becoming unstable, and compounded by rising delivery uncertainty, this directly affects letter of credit issuance, shipment window locking, and exposure to breach risk. Some buyers have already begun requesting an extension of the force majeure clause scope or adding written commitments for alternative sources of supply.

Raw Material Procurement Enterprises

70% of basic chemical raw materials in the Asia-Pacific region rely on imports from the Middle East. The current supply gap has materially driven up regional spot premiums and intensified deviations in long-term contract execution. The procurement side is facing a triple challenge: contract performance pressure, extended validation cycles for alternative raw material compatibility, and stricter compliance review of import customs clearance documents.

Processing and Manufacturing Enterprises

Downstream modification, injection molding, and film plants using polyolefins as intermediates are experiencing frequent production schedule adjustments, passive consumption of safety stock, and hidden increases in energy consumption and labor scheduling costs due to delays and instability in upstream raw material arrivals. Some enterprises have already triggered internal supply warning mechanisms.

Channel Distribution Enterprises

International chemical distributors and cross-border warehousing and distribution service providers are facing pressures such as higher risks of in-transit cargo congestion at ports, longer response cycles for regional reallocation, and surging customer demand for urgent replenishment; the VMI (vendor-managed inventory) model originally designed around stable ocean shipping transit times is becoming less adaptable and requires recalibration of regional warehouse allocation strategies.

What Key Points Should Relevant Enterprises or Practitioners Focus On, and How Should They Respond at Present

Monitor Key Product Categories and Critical Transport Node Dynamics

Continue tracking subsequent updates from Goldman Sachs and navigation safety notices issued by institutions such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) in the Gulf of Oman; focus on vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the operating status of core Middle Eastern loading ports such as Abu Dhabi/Ras Tanura, and their actual impact on shipments of upstream raw materials for PTA and styrene such as ethylene glycol, pure benzene, and propylene.

Prudently Assess the Feasibility of Fulfilling Existing Orders

For export orders for Q2 2026 that have been signed but not yet invoiced/shipped, review one by one the raw material lock-in status, remaining production scheduling capacity, and reserved logistics windows; for orders dependent on direct raw material supply from the Middle East, give priority to initiating the force majeure notification procedure, and simultaneously provide buyers with explanations of alternative capacity sources (such as localized supporting supply in Southeast Asia or progress in switching to domestic raw materials from non-Middle East routes).

Launch Feasibility Verification for Alternative Procurement Routes

For significantly affected categories such as styrene and PTA, identify non-Middle East supply sources with equivalent quality certification (such as manufacturers in South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam), and complete technical parameter comparisons, small-batch trial use, and compliance document adaptation; avoid a procurement structure that relies solely on a single country/port, and strengthen the legal enforceability of multi-source supply agreements and flexible clauses on minimum order quantities.

Strengthen Cross-Department Coordination and Information Synchronization Mechanisms

Establish an emergency response task force composed of procurement, production, logistics, legal, and sales teams to synchronize daily key data such as raw material arrival deviation rates, in-transit cargo positioning, and customer communication minutes; unify external communication to avoid commercial disputes or accumulated credit risks caused by information discrepancies.

Editorial Viewpoint / Industry Observation

显然，这尚未构成结构性供应崩溃，而是一次严重的短期物流冲击，并伴随连锁性的合同影响。分析表明，亚洲 50%-60% 的工厂负荷率反映的是主动需求抑制和库存消耗——而不仅仅是港口拥堵——这表明下游买家已经开始控制采购节奏。从行业角度看，这一事件与其说是一次独立危机，不如说是对现有供应链冗余的一次压力测试：拥有 ≥3 个月战略原料库存、多区域采购合同，或预先协商空运升级条款的企业，正在展现出可量化的运营韧性。当前应重点关注的是，该海峡的通航正常化是否会在 2026年第二季度内实现——还是会触发更长期的改道模式，从而重塑区域成本基准。

Conclusion

This supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is not an isolated geopolitical incident, but a practical test of the resilience of the global chemical supply chain. Its current impact is mainly reflected in disrupted delivery rhythms and a temporary restructuring of cost structures, rather than long-term capacity substitution or changes in technology routes. It is more appropriately understood as a high-intensity, short- to medium-term operational stress test—the industry needs to rationally distinguish between “emergency response” and “strategic transformation,” while ensuring fulfillment of Q2 orders and systematically reviewing the concentration of raw material sources, inventory health thresholds, and contract risk allocation mechanisms.

Information Source Notes

Main source: Goldman Sachs emergency market report issued on 2026年5月2日.
Areas requiring continued observation: progress in restoring passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the actual recovery timeline of operations at major chemical loading ports in the Middle East, and the pace of release of alternative raw material production capacity within the Asia-Pacific region.