Starting May 1, 2026, China has suspended exports of ordinary sulfuric acid, directly affecting the raw material supply rhythm of downstream industries overseas such as phosphate fertilizers, titanium dioxide, and lithium battery materials. This policy has already prompted importers in Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa to urgently adjust procurement plans and shipping schedules. Relevant companies need to reassess Q2 inventory strategies and the feasibility of local blending, which deserves close attention from upstream and downstream players across the phosphorus chemical, fertilizer, coatings, and new energy materials industry chains.

Event Overview

Starting May 1, 2026, China has officially suspended exports of ordinary sulfuric acid. This policy has already been publicly implemented, and the current export compliance window has been closed. Companies such as Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group, which have the capacity to fulfill domestic trade contracts, have maintained stable domestic delivery schedules, but they are no longer accepting new export orders. Overseas distributors have already begun requesting quotations for domestic substitute products and rescheduling logistics plans.

Which Segment Industries Are Affected

Direct Trading Companies

As export qualifications and customs declaration channels have become invalid immediately, the business of foreign trade companies engaged in self-operated exports of ordinary sulfuric acid has dropped to zero; the agency export model can no longer continue either, and existing contract performance has been terminated or shifted to domestic sales negotiations. The impact is mainly reflected in the interruption of Q2 export revenue recognition and a sharp decline in demand for documentation services.

Raw Material Procurement Companies

Phosphate fertilizer plants in Southeast Asia, titanium dioxide producers in South America, and compound fertilizer blenders in Africa previously relied on Chinese ordinary acid as a low-cost sulfur source and are now facing raw material shortages. The impact is mainly reflected in longer procurement cycles, rising costs of substitute raw materials (such as sulfur-based acid or imported mineral acid), and the need to revalidate quality compatibility.

Processing and Manufacturing Companies

For phosphate fertilizers (such as DAP, MAP), titanium dioxide (sulfate process), and some iron phosphate precursor manufacturers that use ordinary acid as a key intermediate, uncertainty over raw material arrivals at port has increased. The impact is reflected in fluctuations in production scheduling, a passive upward adjustment in safety inventory levels, and the possibility that some production lines may operate at reduced loads in phases.

Channel Distribution Companies

Regional chemical distributors serving emerging markets previously relied on China’s fast-response supply of ordinary acid to build a JIT model, but now need to shift to multi-source procurement + forward warehouse deployment. The impact is concentrated in greater pressure on customer delivery commitments, insufficient local blending technical reserves, and more frequent renegotiation of payment terms and letter of credit clauses.

What Key Points Should Relevant Companies or Practitioners Focus on, and How Should They Respond at Present

Monitor Follow-up Official Statements or Policy Changes

The current policy is clearly defined as a “suspension,” not a “cancellation” or a “permanent restriction.” Continuous tracking is needed to see whether the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will issue supporting implementation rules, define the scope of application (such as whether it covers ordinary acid of different concentrations/grades), and clarify whether there will be phased resumption arrangements.

Focus on Changes in Key Product Categories, Key Markets, or Key Business Links

It is necessary to immediately sort out the application attributes of ordinary acid within one’s own supply chain (whether it falls within the definition of “ordinary sulfuric acid”), the importing countries involved (such as highly dependent markets including Vietnam, Brazil, and Nigeria), and the degree of irreplaceability in finished products; meanwhile, verify how many weeks existing inventory can support operations, as well as the minimum order quantity (MOQ) and shipping schedules for substitute raw materials.

Differentiate Policy Signals from Actual Business Execution

Although the export window has been closed, domestic circulation remains unrestricted. Some companies may attempt to work around this through a “domestic sale + overseas related-party procurement” approach, but it should be noted that this path involves risks related to transfer pricing, end-use certification, and anti-circumvention review, and should not be assumed feasible by default.

Prepare Procurement, Supply Chain, Communication, or Contingency Plans in Advance

It is recommended to complete three types of actions in early May: first, complete sample testing and preliminary review of commercial terms with at least 2 non-China sulfur source suppliers (such as sulfur-based acid plants in the Middle East and Moroccan phosphate acid suppliers); second, provide core downstream customers with a written explanation of the supply adjustment logic and temporary delivery arrangements; third, launch small-scale local blending trials (such as diluting and blending concentrated sulfuric acid) and retain process records for reference.

Editorial Viewpoint / Industry Observation

Observably, this export suspension is not merely an administrative adjustment but a structural signal on sulfuric acid’s role in China’s dual-circulation strategy—prioritizing domestic fertilizer security and upstream resource control. Analysis shows it has already triggered tangible procurement shifts in Q2 2026, yet its longer-term impact hinges on whether alternative supply chains stabilize within 90–120 days. From an industry perspective, it functions less as a temporary bottleneck and more as a catalyst for regional acid sourcing diversification; continuous monitoring of port throughput data from Guangzhou, Qingdao and Beibu Gulf will be critical indicators.

Conclusion:
This suspension of ordinary sulfuric acid exports is one of the few upstream raw material policy intervention events seen in the phosphorus chemical sector in recent years. Its direct effects have already emerged in cross-border procurement chains, but a systematic substitution solution has not yet taken shape. At present, it is more appropriate to view this as a supply chain resilience stress test rather than a reversal of the long-term supply landscape. Industry participants should dynamically assess the effectiveness of alternative pathways on a quarterly basis and avoid making medium- to long-term capacity or investment decisions based on a single policy node.

Information Source Notes:
The core facts in this briefing come from publicly available Chinese government policy implementation notices and recent investor relations responses from Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group. Specific overseas buyer inquiry behavior, shipping schedule adjustment details, and related content have been cross-verified through multiple international chemical trade platforms (such as ICIS and regional briefings from ChemicalWeek). Follow-up policy details, customs clearance data for substitute raw materials, and progress in regional blending still require continuous observation.